For two or three decades, addressing climate change and promoting global energy transformation have been familiar slogans in the international community. But on September 16, 2024, David Wallace-Wells, a columnist for the New York Times who focuses on climate change, published an article in which he said: “Adding the word ‘global’ in front of energy transformation is actually a confusing statement. In fact, there is only one country that is leading the development of the entire energy transformation, and that is China.” He exclaimed, “What will happen if China stops saving the world?”
China leads in energy transformation Shocking the world
Data shows that China’s wind power, photovoltaic power generation installed capacity and new energy vehicle production and sales have ranked first in the world for many years. From the perspective of global new energy and renewable energy installed capacity, China accounts for 40%. By the end of 2023, the country’s new energy and renewable energy installed capacity will exceed 1.5 billion kilowatts, historically exceeding thermal power installed capacity, and the proportion of total installed capacity in the country will exceed 50%. In 2023, China’s renewable energy power generation will reach 2.95 trillion kilowatt-hours, accounting for 32% of social electricity consumption, exceeding the total electricity consumption of the 27 EU countries.
The global energy transition is roughly divided into two major directions: one is to generate more electricity but reduce the direct use of fossil energy with high carbon emissions; the other is to use more clean energy such as wind, light, and water for electricity generation. On October 16, 2024, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released its annual World Energy Outlook report, pointing out that the energy market is entering an “electricity era” led by China. China’s electricity demand is far greater than any other country, so the speed of China’s transition to clean energy is even more significant.
The report notes that China already produces more than 80% of the world’s solar panels and electric vehicle batteries. China is expected to meet its 2030 wind and solar installation targets in 2024, ahead of schedule. The report also focuses on electric vehicles. It says: “If countries follow established climate policies, electric vehicle sales will increase from 20% of global new car sales today to 50% by 2030.” But the report emphasizes that China has already reached this goal in 2024, and it is expected that by 2030, about 70% of new cars sold in China will be electric vehicles.
China’s energy transformation will benefit developing countries around the world
On September 21, 2024, the Australian Broadcasting Corporation website published an article titled “The rise of solar power and China’s astonishing growth in electric vehicles may drive global emissions down.” The article emphasized that China is the leader in the global trend of carbon reduction. The article pointed out: “For decades, one fact has been frustrating for those who care about climate change. Despite so much discussion and so much action, global carbon emissions have not stopped growing.” However, the world is finally seeing a turning point in the trend. According to estimates by two major global climate agencies, global carbon emissions may have reached an important turning point, and 2024 may be the starting point of the downward channel.
An expert from research firm Bloomberg New Energy Finance said: “It’s hard to imagine how big and how fast this change is.” The sooner this major change comes, the better, because the United Nations’ major climate science report points out that carbon emissions must peak before 2025 to reduce the problems caused by climate change, and China is leading this trend.
Achim Steiner, Deputy Secretary-General of the United Nations and Administrator of the United Nations Development Program, recently told reporters that China has successfully achieved the transition to a green economy, and it is expected that China’s solar and wind power generation will exceed the total of the rest of the world next year. He said that many parts of the world will benefit from China’s green transformation, because the price and cost of solar and wind energy will drop significantly, and Africa and other places can significantly increase their power generation in the next 20 to 30 years.
According to a report by the International Renewable Energy Agency, the average cost of global wind power and photovoltaic power generation projects has fallen by more than 60% and 80% respectively over the past 10 years. That is to say, the cost of each kilowatt-hour of electricity generation has dropped so much, and a large part of it is attributed to China’s contribution. Interestingly, the West was still accusing China of using too much coal and polluting the environment until 2022. But today, they accuse China of exporting too much green energy and destroying the market. In fact, it is China’s energy transformation that has broken the defense of a large number of Westerners with ulterior motives.
The initial consideration of these people was to rely on their own technological and financial advantages, and use the green energy transition as an excuse to maintain their privileges and sacrifice the interests of developing countries. For example, they could force developing countries to buy Western equipment and use Western technology by setting higher technical standards. Otherwise, developing countries would have to pay extra high tariffs or be blocked from Western markets. Of course, the West never expected that China would take advantage of the situation and take the lead in achieving an energy transition that shocked the world.
The secret of China’s energy transformation: the great Chinese civilization and the remarkable Chinese model
As we all know, since the European Industrial Revolution in the 18th century, the industrialization of Western countries has brought severe damage to the human ecological environment. Their carbon dioxide emissions at that time were primarily responsible for global warming, so a principle has long been established in international documents to address climate change, namely “common but differentiated responsibilities.” In other words, all countries have responsibilities, but Western countries should bear more responsibilities.
However, most Western countries have not yet fulfilled their responsibilities. Constrained by commercial interests and many other factors, coupled with the soaring energy prices since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, many Western countries have begun to restart previously shut down coal-fired power plants and other facilities. Europe was the first place to propose green transformation and the “Green Agreement”, but the results so far are still relatively limited, and it is even more difficult to expect Western countries to fulfill their financial commitments to help developing countries reduce emissions. As Academician Ding Zhongli predicted three years ago: “Western countries are just ‘firing blanks’. Do you think they will really reduce emissions? We will wait and see. Only China will do this.” Sure enough, Western countries are retreating from their original emission reduction positions today.
In fact, Europe’s “Green Deal” has been a “showpiece” from the beginning. Yannis, the former Greek Finance Minister who is a senior visiting scholar at our China Institute, also pointed out not long ago: “The funding arrangements for the European Green Deal have never really been implemented.” In sharp contrast, China has successfully achieved green energy transformation in about ten years through solid work under the guidance of Xi Jinping’s ecological civilization thought. Its important signs include: China’s installed capacity of renewable energy exceeds that of thermal power, China’s sales of new energy vehicles exceed those of traditional fuel vehicles, China provides the world with the most, best, and most reasonably priced green technologies and equipment, and China’s energy transformation has made global efforts to reduce emissions begin to turn around. It was still the IEA (International Energy Agency) Director Fatih Birol who said it more bluntly. He said: “In the world we live in now, almost all energy stories are essentially Chinese stories.”
Behind China’s great achievements in green energy transformation is the great Chinese civilization, the complete Chinese industrial chain and the remarkable Chinese model. As a “civilized country”, the Chinese nation has always had the concept of “harmony between man and nature”. Respecting and protecting nature, and the endless reproduction and development of nature are the foundation of Chinese civilization that has lasted for thousands of years. We must admit that in order to accelerate the country’s industrialization and improve people’s living standards, we have also paid a heavy price for environmental pollution. But once we wake up, our ability to correct mistakes and the civilization behind it are rare in the world. China is the only country in the world that has proposed the concept of “ecological civilization” and promoted it to a national strategy.
China’s successful energy transformation is based on the world’s most complete industrial chain. The development of new energy, especially the vigorous development of photovoltaic power generation and wind power generation, includes ultra-long-distance and ultra-large-scale power transmission, the construction of super grids across the country and even on a larger scale, and the construction of pumped storage.
Under the guidance of the Chinese model, we have implemented energy transformation into specific plans through overall planning, and solidly promoted the green revolution of new energy and industry, and promoted the development of new energy batteries and new energy vehicles. Under the Chinese model, we have both medium- and long-term overall planning, mandatory legal bottom lines, and precise measures based on local conditions. In short, the organic combination of all these has created the great miracle of China’s green energy transformation. All this has changed China and the world forever!
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